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Ben Sage, Moving Woodstock

July 2016 Woodstock Residential Market Report

Posted on August 2, 2016 by Ben Sage in Woodstock Ontario Real Estate Stats



July 2016 Residential Market Report

Summary

This market is laughably one-sided.

Our team is doing our best to negotiate fair deals for our buyer clients, and working extremely hard on trying to expose our listed properties for a reasonable amount of time to secure the best possible prices and terms for our seller clients, but market conditions are bordering on ridiculous.

At the end of July, there were only 87 homes for sale in the city of Woodstock.  For perspective, last year at the end of July, there were 167, this is a decrease of 47.9% in available inventory for buyers to purchase.   If you strip out the “new construction” homes, that leaves the inventory at only 45 homes available to be purchased.

So active inventory is down from last year… But we need to look at the bigger picture to figure out how far down it is….  Okay.  Here’s a list of available inventory levels at the end of July for the past six years….

2010 – 317

2011 – 318

2012 – 272

2013 – 254

2014 – 239

2015 – 167

2016 – 87

So a buyer looking for a home in 2010 has 317 properties to consider before making their decision.  That same buyer now has only 87 to look at.  Oh by the way, of those 87, 14 of them are conditionally sold at the time of this report, and due to the nature of new construction, some don’t even exist yet.

Tough situation.

Here’s how it boils down in terms of commonly tracked metrics:

Average sale price in Woodstock was up 17% to $292,158 in July 2016 (Reminder, this is for Woodstock residential non-condo sales only)

Look how the July average price in Woodstock has appreciated over the past five years:

 

Perhaps not unsurprisingly, the number of sales in July fell from last year by a margin of 30%, down to only 68 transactions (from 97). My theory is that at this time, people are just throwing in the towel. They can’t negotiate purchases without having their homes sold first, and are too worried to take that plunge (rightfully so…), and are choosing to stay put for the time being.

Sellers are getting their asking prices…. and more…

Of all the sales in July this year, the average asking price to selling price was 100%.

Obviously many homes still sell under asking price, but many homes are going so far over asking price as to offset that difference.

Take a quick look at the Absorption Rate, which is a measure of supply relative to demand. The blue line is 2016….  over the past four months, conditions have been steady around the 1.35 -1.5 months mark. WELL below the 4 year average, and WELL below “balanced” conditions.  Remember, the lower the line, the better for sellers (worse for buyers). In my years of tracking absorption rate, I have never seen it stay so low for so long…

Additionally, the absorption rate of 1.28 is a record breaker, as far back as my numbers go.  Representing statistically the lowest measurement of supply vs. demand since I began tracking these numbers in 2011.

These gains are unsustainable….

I’m going to sound the alarm again on sustainability. With price increases tracking ridiculously high, there is no doubt in my mind that we are going to see a pullback in terms of value, I am just not wizardly enough to figure out exactly when it is going to happen, and how damaging it is going to be. Also, I am not a financial planner, but lets not assume our houses will keep going up by 10-15% per year, mkay? That could be trouble if we start borrowing against the “current value” of our homes….  Remember USA in 2008?  Ya, let’s not do that.

Even though August isn’t traditionally the BEST time of year to sell your home, this year could be the exception. If you need to sell, and don’t have to buy, BRAVO – you’ve won the lottery…  Let’s chat and I will get you top dollar for your home….

We take enormous pride in understanding the market, to best assist our clients to capitalize on current conditions.

The Woodstock Homes Team is ready to help. CLICK HERE to connect with us and let’s chat about your plans!


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